I am still looking forward to Bowkermania!

I am still bullish on John Bowker even after his slow start up in the big leagues. Last season he worked hard on his plate discipline and it showed with Bowker posing a strong line in AAA Fresno. He hit .342/ .451/ .596 with 21 HRs the Major League Equivalent for him last year was .286/.380/.476 and 16 HRs and would have made him among the best hitters in our very weak lineup.

I wouldn’t put it past the Giant’s braintrust if they are searching on Kayek.com for some cheap tickets to Fresno for the guy. This is the Giants modus operandi, if young guys don’t light the world on fire in their first 100 at bats they never will but if a veteran has had at least one good season in their career they know what they are doing and it is proven. Its science to them, young guys are risky and should be given few opportunities and if they can’t perform well they never will old guys are proven and must be given as many at bats as necessary to get things back on track because they could always turn the corner at any time even if they are pushing 40.

The last thing that the Giants need to do is over react to this small sample size which they have done oh so many times, this is the reason the Eugenio Velez is up in the majors. It looks like he has been incredibly unlucky thus far this season; he has a BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) of .222 while for his career he is around .300 so expect that number along with his average to go up. He is also hit a lot more groundballs than normal so I would expect him to trend back toward his career averages with more line drives and less groundballs.

Bowker is a valuable member of this team and shouldn’t be sent to the dog house after only 39 plate appearances. Let’s give the guy some more time and if he is still struggling in June send him back to Fresno. We already gave away one solid major leaguer for some cash we don’t need to give up on another one before he even has 50 at bats this year.

The Fifth Starter Quandary

Todd Wellemeyer continues to struggle this time lasting only 4 innings and getting his third loss of the year. He had control problems walking 4 and constantly falling behind in the count and having to throw challenge fastballs.

Here is what Bruce Bochey said, “Todd, you know, he's been around. He'll regroup here. He's had a hiccup here these two starts. We need him to get back where he was.” I have to say that I disagree. The way that he is pitching is not that much of a deviation from what his career numbers say he should be doing.

He is giving more walks than normal but he is not known as a control kind of guy with a career walk rate of 4.4 per 9 and not a lot of strike outs to make up for it. The one year that he looked like a serviceable and valuable starting pitcher looks like the hiccup in his career not what is happening now.

Now the real question is who could be used to replace him? Let’s take a look.

The In House Replacements:

Kevin Pucetas:

In 5 minor league seasons Pucetas is done fairly well with a 43-14 record a 3.22 ERA and a strike out to walk ratio of just below 3. He came into camp as the third choice after struggling in the transition to AAA for the number 5 starter spot and competed well. In the end the Giants decided that they would go with the guy with the veteran savvy.

Why he could be better:

First of all he is much younger and has better potential upside. Not a whole lot as he probably projects to a backend rotation or bullpen arm. He has shown much better control then Wellemeyer over his career even when struggling last season keep his walks per 9 below 3. Bringing up Pucetas at best could be a marginal improvement of a half a win to maybe a win and a half if he can pitch at slightly above replacement level.

Why it could be more of the same:

Pucetas is an unknown at the Major League level and struggled last season with the jump from high A to AAA with all of the stats moving in the wrong direction. If his numbers do the same thing after a call up you are looking at a near mirror image of what Wellemeyer is giving us.

Joe Martinez:

Martinez made the team coming out of spring training last season and suffered a gruesome injury with a line drive off the skull. He was able to make it back with the club but then didn’t have great numbers in the 30 innings that he pitched.

Why he could be better:

Martinez has done well at every level that he played for any significant amount of time. He sports a strong strike out to walk ratio in the minors of just under 4 with 7.4 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. The Giants felt strong enough about his talent to let him join the team last season as the long man and could probably give the team some decent replacement level or slightly above innings.

Why it could be more of the same:

The story for Martinez is that he probably wouldn’t give the Giants that big of a boost over Wellemeyer. In his short stint if the big club last season he was hit around pretty good but it is hard to extrapolate from those numbers as it was only 30 innings but if that is the reflection of his true talent it is not much better than what we are currently getting.

Madison Bumgarner:

Bumgarner is the top pitching prospect in the farm system and projects to be a front of the rotation kind of arm. The fifth starter spot was his to lose this spring and he had a poor showing in spring which has carried over into his first few starts in Fresno. The job is most likely his if he is able to get on track and is ready for a call up later in the summer.

Why he could be better:

Bumgarner has much better natural talent and at 20 has tremendous upside compared to the others on the list. He is regarded as one of the best prospects in the game and up until the recent bump in the road was on the fast track to the majors while mowing down the competition every step of the way. He made a spot start for the big club and was quite effective even with diminished velocity

Why it could be more of the same:

At the end of last season Bumgarner lost 5-10 mph off his plus fast ball. This has been a cause for concern because with the loss in velocity came a drop off in his K/9. The loss of velocity has continued into the spring and while there appears to not be an injury it isn’t normal for 20 year olds to lose that much on their best pitch. With out the plus fastball he has been very hittable and that could be the case if he hasn’t figured out what how to get guys out without being able to blow it by them.

Outside Replacements:

The Giants could always look outside of the farm system for an arm with guys like John Smoltz or Jarrod Washburn. These would be mercenary arms and could be an effective stop gap measure for if/when Bumgarner is ready to take over the role. I think that this maybe the best way to go about replacing Wellemeyer if he continues to struggle over the next few starts.

There is not a whole lot of upside and we would certainly have to pay the market price or maybe more for these guys but if the Giants are serious about winning this year getting an extra 2-3 wins could make a big difference in what appears to be a very tough and evenly matched division race.

Giant's throw 1 hitter and lose yep that sucks

So this is probably the worst three loss stretch I have ever really been through. Sunday we are beat by Manny and his steroid boobs as Zito throws a gem. On Monday they are beat on a walk off homerun by David freaken Eckstein after a gritty start by Matt Cain who pitched well even without the beat stuff and now the lose after giving up only 1 hit. What can you say about this?

Really there is nothing? This has to be the rock bottom for heart renching losses, the only way to make this worse is that stupid rally monkey to come back and haunt my dreams again. Actually it could get worse we still have on more game in this house of horrors.  

Now we have to rely on Todd Wellemeyer to stop the sweep.

I don't even want to write anything about this game but I guess we should think about this sonemore and drive ourselves into depression. 

The Giants blew chances, Sanchez can't get a sacrifice bunt down and a lead off double is nuteralized. 

Edgar Renteria kills 2 rallies with double play grounders. 

Pablo hits a double but can't get pushed across the plate. Bowker hits a blooper that David Eckstein makes a run saving catch on. 

On the one hit from San Deigo, they are able to get to third on a great play by Huff and a drive in the run on a sac fly after a battle and some nasty pitches from J Sanchez. 

In the eighth Nate leads off with a tripple but can't score. I don't even want to sat anything about those at bats. 

The Giants blow another chance in the 9th with a runner on third with 1 out and can't drive it in. 

So another day another heart stomping loss. Jonathan Sanchez deserved better, when you go 7 innings with 1 hit you shouldn't get a loss.

The Giants can't get out of town fast enough.

The Evolution of The Freak

Over at Fangraphs Dave Cameron has written a nice piece on the growth of Tim Lincecum as a pitcher. I have to say that I agree with most of what he has written. When Tim first came up he was a flame thrower with a plus curveball.

He has evolved into a near unhittable force with 4 pitches that he can and will throw in any situation. The first big change was the development of the changeup. This put him into another catagory, this off season he came back with a slider and a began to work back in the curve which was one of his bread and butter pitches early in his career. The guy has become a complete pitcher, he has lowered his walk rate while maintaining a high strike out rate. His velocity has fallen some since he made his first appearence lighting up the radar gun but he has only gotten more effective.

Here is a nice little piece from the fangraphs post:

The first pitch Tim Lincecum ever threw in the major leagues was reported to be 99 MPH on the Giants stadium gun (we don’t have Pitch F/x data for that performance, unfortunately). He then proceeded to hit 100 three times in his first big league inning, showing the velocity that had gotten him drafted in the first round, even as scouts were concerned with his command, delivery, and workload. In that first year, Lincecum’s fastball averaged 94.2 MPH, the seventh hardest fastball in the game, and he threw it 67 percent of the time.

You don’t need a best fit line to see the trend in that image. His velocity has been steadily falling since he arrived in the big leagues, and through his first three starts this year, his fastball is averaging just 91.7 MPH. He has thrown 312 pitches this year, and only three of them have topped 95. He now throws about as hard as Matt Harrison and Clayton Richard. But, this is the crazy thing – it hasn’t mattered at all.

The guy might be a little less freakesh then when he first came up, but he is even more the face of the franchise.

Gaint's lose in Extra Innings, Looking ahead, Bumgarner Update

Matt Cain was Matt Cained last night and the Petco Park continued to be a place where the Giants struggle. The Giants had chances and only had one side of the quality pitching and timely hitting winning formula for the game. They were in it for most of the night which makes it all the more painfull.

Cain pitched fairly well going 6 innings while allowing 8 base runners and striking out 4. He gave up 2 runs and really deserved better than a no decision but I have to say that if this was 2 years ago it would have been an loss for him. On a side note is anyone else getting concerned about the falling strike out rate, I guess it isn’t that bad seeing that the walks have come down at the same time and he sports a 4-1 strike out to walk ratio. I think that if the walks start creeping up it will be time to worry.

The offense last night continued to be punchless minus Juan Uribe who had his second homer in as many games. The offense this team showed in the begging of the year is beginning to regress to what I would have more expected it to be.
I am skirting around the issue because I have really tried to forget it but David Eckstein hit a walk off home run. This is the same David Eckstein that has only 35 home runs in 5260 career at bats, not exactly the type of guy you expect the walk off from but I guess that things are evening out for us because how many times are you going to expect Edgar “I am as old as a dinosaur not to mention I look like one” Renteria to hit a 3 run bomb off of Billy Wagner.
So this loss hurts, and the Giants fall to 1-3 in one run games which I imagine there will be a lot of this season.

Looking Ahead:

Tonight’s game matches up two strong arms. Jonathan Sanchez is coming off a strong start where he went 8 dominating innings but consistency has always plagued Sanchez. Hopefully he continues to pitch well and this is the team that he had his near perfect game against last year. The Padres trot out Mat Latos who had a bit of a rough outing against the Braves but is a promising young arm with a lot of talent. This usually doesn’t bode well for the Giants offense but hopefully they can be patient and force Latos to come into the zone and get some good stuff to hit.

Wednesday’s game is a chance at redemption for Todd Wellemeyer who was abused by the Dodgers in his last outing. He faces Jon Garland who has been fairly solid this season. Hopefully the Giants are not depending on this game to escape a sweep because I would not have high hopes.

Bumgarner Watch:

Mad Bum threw 6 innings in Fresno allowing 4 base runners while striking out 3 and walking 1. He gave up only 1 earned run and was around the strike zone all night with 51 of 74 pitches for strikes.

Also encouraging is that it was reported that he was sitting at the low 90’s and topped out around 93 for the game after spending time with Giants pitching guru Dick Tidrow working on mechanics. This is some well needed good news and pushes me away from the panic button. Hopefully this trend continues.

Giants might be shopping for a new 5th starter soon

Coming into this season the giants were under a lot of question as to who would be the 5th starter. After failing to resign Brad Penny who did a wonderful job in that role in the second half last season. The giants went with Todd Wellemeyer over the young gun Madison B (who is struggling in AAA Fresno with an 0-1 record and an 8.31 ERA).

In two starts Wellemeyer is 0-2 with an ERA over 9.5. This is not acceptable and the Giants need to make a move here soon or the 5th starter will be a loss every night he goes out there.

Bumgarner Struggling in Triple-A

Rob Neyer reports that Giants prospect Madison Bumgarner is continuing to struggle in AAA this year. Through two starts this year Bumgarner has been hit hard, he is carrying a 14.14 ERA and .538 opponents' batting average after coming into the season with a 27-5 record and 1.65 ERA in the minors. The velocity has not returned and is beginning to make me a little nervous. We still are in small sample size territory here and it is not something to get overly dramatic about but it does cause concern.

Here is the choice quote from Neyer:

Bumgarner opened last season throwing 90-94 with Class A San Jose, dropped to 87-90 in the summer with Double-A Connecticut, and finished at 85-88 with the Giants in September. In spring training, the Giants let him throw seven innings, in which he recorded seven walks and zero strikeouts. And now he's throwing cookies in the Pacific Coast League.

I am still hopefully for the kid turning into something special but the track record for pitchers flaming out is pretty high and it may be going down that path. I hope that this is just something mechanical that can be worked out or that if there is something medically wrong that it can be worked out and fixed.

I also found this interesting breakdown of Bumgarner’s mechanics which the author suggests could lead to some potential injury. Hopefully that doesn’t happen with such a talented kid.

If this continues for too much longer in Fresno nervousness may start to turn to panic.

Good Bye Freddie Lewis

Good bye Mr. Lewis. Your tunure with the Giants is best described as a decent player who was in a bad situation.

Fred had the job of replacing the one of if not the most feared hitter to ever wear a Giants jersey in left field. That cannot be easy for anyone and I do not envy the task of trying to crawl out the shaddow that was left out there.

Fred has been a polarizing figure during his career by the bay with some thinking that Fred is a decent major leaguer with others falling on the side of thinking he is a bum.

Let's do a quick comparison of some tripple slash lines (AVG/OBP/SLG) to see where he comes down here:

Player A: .281/.339/.449
Player B: .228/.290/.365
Player C: .277/.355/.420
Player D: .265/.306/.401
Player E: .274/.343/.423
Player F: .284/.316/.415
Player G: .245/.292/.403

These are the career numbers of Fred Lewis and the other Giants outfielders. Would it surprise you if I told you that Lewis is player C and has arguably the second best tripple slash line for his career.

Here are the identities of each:

Player A: Aaron Rowand
Player B: Andres Torres
Player C: Fred Lewis
Player D: Eugenio Velez
Player E: Mark DeRosa
Player F: Nate Schierholtz
Player G: John Bowker

Fred compares very well with both Aaron Rowand and better than Mark DeRosa who Giants signed to a 2 year $12 million deal this winter.

This type of move is pretty typical for the Giants front office. Fred Lewis doen't have the track reccord and reputation of a Mark DeRosa or a Aaron Rowand but he is a league average player these are not the types of player that good teams just give away especailly when he still only makes the league minimum.

Over at Fangraphs they have a nice write up on Fred. Here are some of the highlights:

His 109 wRC+ suggests an above average player. 2009 was a down year for Lewis, however, as his ISO dropped from .158 to .132. As a result, his wOBA and wRC dropped to .327 and 98 respectively, the first year in which he has been below average in either statistic. The projection systems see him as slightly above average this year, and ZiPS in particular expects a return to 2008 levels.

Defensively, both UZR and +/- are fans of Lewis, despite his poor reputation among Giants fans in Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report. Both systems have Lewis between +9 and +11 over his 326 game career, which would still make him a below average position-neutral defender over 150 games.


Overall, not only does that make Lewis an MLBer, but it makes him nearly an average player. There is no way that Lewis is only the 6th best outfielder on the Giants roster. Aaron Rowand is projected to have a similar or worse year. Nate Schierholtz has similar projections. Andres Torres is 32 and projected to be well below average at the plate by both CHONE and ZiPS... Eugenio Velez has put up 201 games of replacement level baseball in his career so far, and the projections don’t see improvement in his future – only a data-starved Marcel projects a wRC+ greater than 90.

The Giants gave away Fred Lewis a decent major leaguer for cash or a PTBNL. These are not the moves of savy GM with a roster that is not overflowing with talent.

Good bye and good luck in Toronto.

Update: Grant over at McCovey Chronicles has some nice thoughts on the Lewis trade. Check it out. Chris at Bay City Ball weighs in with some similar thoughts.

Giants vs. Dodgers Series Preview:

It is rivalry time again! For the first time of the 2010 season the Giants head down south to play the bums of LA. The Giants are off to a hot start and the Dodgers have sort of stumbled out of the gate. This will be the first big test for the Giants playing a good team away from the friendly confines of AT&T Park. A series win would do a lot to boost the confidence of this team, a loss would definitely throw some cold water on the hot start. All I can say hopefully it is better than the first trip down last year where they got swept.


The 2010 vintage Giants offense has shown signs of being much better than any other post Bonds team sitting 5th with over 5.5 runs per game. This may be unsustainable as most projections show that this offense should be much closer to 4.5 but why not enjoy the timely hitting that this team has shown. The Dodgers have one of the better lineups in the National league and should have little trouble scoring runs this season. The question and formula for winning for this team will always starts with the pitching so let’s check out the match ups.

The Match Ups:

Friday, April 16th:

Todd Wellemeyer, RHP (0-1, 5.68) vs. Vicente Padilla, RHP (0-1, 11.42)


Wellemeyer pitched fairly well in his Giants debt going 6 strong innings before getting 3 runs put on him in the 7th. If he can give the Giants 6 strong again I have to say that I like their chances. If he lacks the control and gives too many free passes and has to come with a lot of challenge fastballs there could be trouble.
Vicente Padilla on the other hand has not thrown well this season. Going 4 and a third in each start and giving up more than a run an inning. Padilla has good stuff and pitched pretty well against the Giants last September in 2 games going 1-0.

This match up is one of the keys to which way the series turns. If Wellemeyer can turn a lead over to the bullpen it could be a victory, if Padilla continues his current trend it could be a rout. If the Giants offense of last season shows and hacks away it could be a very long night. This will set the tone.

Saturday, April 17th:

Tim Lincecum, RHP (2-0, 1.29) vs. Charlie Haeger, RHP (0-0, 3.86)

The Freak/Franchise has been his regular self and has started out the season well. The lost velocity from the end of last season has returned with Tim sitting comfortable 92-94 even fairly late in the game and what can be said that hasn’t already about the nasty change up that he throws. I would say that as long as Tim has some stuff we can get a win in this game.

Haeger could spell some trouble for the Giants if they revert to their last seasons form. A relatively unknown pitcher with some decent strike out stuff (career 6.62 K/9, 12Ks in first start against FL) last season would have a career day with last seasons hackers. Hopefully the patience that team has been shown continues and we are able to get some runs for Tim.


Sunday, April 18

Barry Zito, LHP (2-0, 2.25) vs. TBA

Barry is off to his best start as a Giant, I don’t want to write too much and scare off whatever good mojo the guy has working for him. Maybe it is the awesome stripped socks, whatever it is I want to see more it.

The Dodgers haven’t announced a starter for the game the cowards but it could be Kershaw. If it is Kershaw I might be a little nervous if he has his good stuff. When that happens he is as good as any pitcher in the game. I guess we will wait and see.


Predictions:

I am really hopping to get a series win here; I think tonight’s game sets the tone. If the offense shows up it to me looks good for a series win if they disappear it could be a long and depressing series. I am hopping that Wellemeyer gives 5-6 innings and our well rested bullpen can shut the door and get a series opening victory. I think that the Giants get a W behind Lincecum and I think that Barry’s good run comes to an end and the Giants get out of Chavez Ravine with two victories and a series win. Let’s go Giants and Beat LA.